Sunday 1 July 2012

A Manmohan encore? Unlikely

Manmohan Singh (MMS) has taken responsibility of the Finance Ministry (FM), probably leaving P Chidambaram (PC) one disappointed guy. There are many who expect MMS to do an encore of his 1991 act when he shook the Indian economy out of its slumber. However this seems hardly likely this time round. There are multiple commentators who have expressed the view that this time round MMS does not have a PV Narasimha Rao to back him up. He has Sonia Gandhi who is the power behind the throne. Sonia Gandhi's NAC for instance seems to be acting as a separate cabinet. There were some points made with respect to the proposed legislation on land acquisition and rehabilitation by a Parliamentary Standing Committee. It seems that post these there were discussions internal to the NAC and with Rahul Gandhi. What is the sanctity of the Standing Committee in this scenario? Had the proposals been rejected by the Cabinet it would have been one matter. However here we have a body which is unelected and extra-constitutional. Sonia Gandhi seems more interested in maintaining all subsidies and her pet projects like the MGNREGA and the Food Security Act, irrespective of the impact on our economy. India today is facing its highest current account deficit (CAD) in 20 years. India has not been able to fully capitalize on the weak Rupee to boost exports. One reason is probably the weak external demand due to sluggish growth or contraction abroad. The CAD is also being affected as a weak Rupee also increases the cost of our imports. 

It is time that the government woke up and did something before we face another 1991-like situation. The government keeps making all the right noises about reforms and requirements of the economy - whether it be FDI in infrastructure or in the retail sector. However when the PM is not the actual decision maker implementing anything becomes difficult. We have ministers booing the international rating agencies (the fact that their credibility is under question post the sub-prime crisis is a different story). We have a minister asking Lakshmi Mittal  not to defame India abroad. We have Pranab Mukherjee, who by the way seems all set to become the next President, who has been saying that the government will take steps. We never get to know what these steps exactly are. 

Moving on, India seems to be making some progress in investigating various terrorist attacks. Jundal or Zabiuddin or whatever his name is has been brought back to India. Now another operative called Fasih will probably be brought back soon. However the media seems to be getting overly zealous in reporting. In fact Jundal's arrest was supposed to have been kept a secret. Also everyday we seem to be getting updates about the investigation. Do the media personnel realize that these are matters related to national security? That their reports will serve to alert other operatives and can potentially give them enough prior notice to escape the law? There should be some self-restraint that has to be practised by our media. Also the government should investigate who it is that is leaking these reports to the media. Further we know Pakistan is a slippery customer as it is. Give them proof of their complicity and they will give 10 reasons to escape responsibility however hollow they might sound. Hence secrecy becomes all the more important.

1 comment:

faguni jain said...

I, for one, do not believe MMS is a visionary for his decisions in 1991. i would've thought he is a visionary if he had brought in liberalization in say 1960s. At that time, in 1991, what other option was there for him? what he did was out of need not out of vision. As if, we could've survived without taking that step. I think he is highly overrated as a finance minister!