The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has just swept the Delhi Assembly polls. I want to spend a few minutes on what it means for the various stakeholders.
AAP:
1. Obviously the centre of attention and rightly so. This is a golden chance for them to prove that they are actually different and can make a huge improvement to our society.
2. They have consistently projected a holier-than-thou attitude and out of trust or naivety people of Delhi have given them a massive mandate. Modi has a big mandate but is crippled due to lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha. Kejriwal does not have that excuse or handicap. There is no legislative council in Delhi. If he wishes he can radically change the face of Delhi. So given the nature of his victory he will be held to higher standards. Kejriwal must remember that the mightier fall harder.
3. Kejriwal has cautioned his party against getting carried away. The way the BJP fought under Modi's name the AAP fought under Kejriwal's. It now remains to be seen whether other members of the party have the same prudence that Kejriwal has displayed or whether having tasted power the party will descend into politics-as-usual. For the state's sake and the country's let us hope that does not happen.
4. From the vote share statistics it looks as if the AAP was able to successfully attract the Congress' support base. People in India do not have a very long memory. For all we know this support base can go back to the Congress during the next election unless the AAP is able to truly prove its worth.
BJP:
1. Undoubtedly a humbling defeat for the party. They chose to make it a Modi vs Kejriwal election. Now predictably they are trying to shield Modi for the defeat.
2. Partners and obviously opposition parties are taking digs at the seeming "invincibility" of Modi being broken. This is a good opportunity for the BJP to introspect. There are multiple lessons for the party.
3. The party should stop parachuting people who jumped ship from the opposition and should give more responsibilities to those who have been with the party throughout.
4. There should not be hubris about the earlier Lok Sabha mandate. There should be more maturity and humility going forward. It has been trying to muscle in onto partners' territory also in some states. This may be the time to go slow and think this through.
5. Let Modi not be the face of eveything. The BJP touted itself as a cadre-based party and as a party with a difference. This was lost as soon as Modi came onto the national stage. This may be good for victories, but can also lead to black eyes.
6. However all said and done, the vote share of the BJP is almost intact. This means people still believe in the party and/or Modi. This is the silver lining.
Congress:
1. The Congress today is probably the best example of what happens to those who abuse power in a democracy. Earlier in the (rest of) Andhra Pradesh (AP) state elections the Congress drew a blank. This is the second instance. The Congress was in power at the centre, Delhi and (united) AP for a long time. However the electorate gave a stunning rebuke. This is nothing less than a slap in the face.
2. This is a serious time for the Congress to revisit its grassroots and have a re-look at its leadership. Ajay Maken has been left to fend the press and there is absolute silence from the "first family". While Modi and Kejriwal can be accused of over-communicating today the Nehru-Gandhis and the Congress in general insist on remaining aloof.
3. There have been multiple calls from across the country to change the leadership. It is high time the party does so. However the chances of that actually happening are low to non-existent. Maken has already tendered his resignation. Probably AK Antony will head a committee set up to investigate reasons for the defeat decimation. The report will blame something or someone else and the Congress will reaffirm its faith in the Nehru-Gandhis. The founding fathers in their graves will put a washing machine's dryer to shame.
Rest of the opposition:
1. Kejriwal's win is a whiff of oxygen to them. Whether it will ensure their survival or whether it is dying burst of the flame remains to be seen. Post the central elections there have been frantic efforts to form "an alternative to the Congress and the BJP" or a "secular bulwark against the communal BJP". It has seen the likes of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav coming together. The TMC is in disarray because of the Saradha scam. This victory may become a rallying point for the rest of the opposition.
2. However in line with the "I am different" rant of the AAP, Kejriwal may not want to align with these people. There is also a risk that the AAP will eat into the vote share of these parties in their respective states. So it remains to be seen whether these parties will welcome the AAP to contest elections in their own states.
India:
1. I truly pray for the sake of the country that Kejriwal works miracles in Delhi. Given his mandate he can. I want him to bring in more empowerment, more digitization of services and the likes which, to paraphrase Modi, will maximize governance and minimize government. I am reading a nicely written book by Mihir Sharma called Restart. The author rightly says that proper reforms taken up in one state can change the country.
2. Today we are in the era of competitive politics. While this competition has always been about things like who will give more subsidies, free stuff etc. today it is also about development. The young Indian electorate of a state would love to see successful schemes from other states being implemented in the home state also. Thus it can become a question of survival for other political parties to emulate the AAP, if it is successful.
3. The AAP also seems to make socialist noises from time to time. Undoubtedly the government has to take care of the poor, needy and deserving. However the emphasis should be more on deserving rather than anything else. Let there not be free stuff for the sake of free stuff or populism.
4. Also let there not be witch hunting of corporates. Nobody claims corporates are epitomes of saintliness. However punish the guilty with transparency. Do not make it seem like a witch hunt, driving investment off.
5. Today India needs foreign investment. I refer to Mihir Sharma's book again. We cannot print money as that will lead to more inflation. We do not seem to have sufficient resources to invest in our needs ourselves. Maybe if we can decrease black money we may have sufficient resources. However this cannot be done in a day. Hence we need foreign money also. Let this not be driven away by the AAP.
At the end of the day I would love to see synergy between Modi and Kejriwal, two individuals who have radically transformed the way we look at India, its citizens and its politics. These two, working together can change the face of the country. This is a synergy which the country needs, and I cannot over emphasize this.
