This is my first post from the land of Lord Jagannatha. Juggernaut is a term I find cute. Now coming to the topic, I will first of all confess that I have greatly lost touch with the general events in my home state of Andhra Pradesh. It is due to the obsession, for lack of a better word, with Jaganmohan Reddy (Jagan), the late YSR's son that I have started taking interest again. My wife and I both have been victims of this media saturation. Thus when she suggested a post on this, I though, why not?
For the uninitiated, the late YS Rajasekhara Reddy, an extremely charismatic leader was a former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. Ever since he died his son Jagan had been nurtuting chief ministerial ambitions. When "Madam" Sonia Gandhi did not show any interest he broke away from the Congress and formed the YSR Congress Party. He seems to be quite popular, at least as per the response to his public rallies and the margin of his victory in his Lok Sabha contest. He has been accused of illegally profiting during the rule of his father. It is said that there have been quid pro quo investments in his companies. His rise has been spectacular. Now we have to see whether his downfall, if it happens will be as spectacular.
Today Jagan is a strange factor in Andhra politics. There has been strong clamour for Telangana to be carved out of AP. The Congress is a fence-sitter while the TDP has turned pro-Telangana. To my knowledge Jagan is yet to make his stand clear. This political ambiguity, while having its critics can actually help him as people will not have a clear reason to not vote for him. His entry into politics has queered the pitch for the TDP and Congress. There are leaders from both parties who can very well switch to YSRCP. This can directly lead to the present Congress govt. falling. Thus it is in the Congress' interests to ensure that Jagan is sidelined. Further YSR effectively ensured that there was no other leader of his standing or popularity in the state unit of the Congress. As per a news item I read (probably in the NDTV website) he ensured that all leaders above Zilla Parishad posts were his relations - family or business wise. Thus the Congress finds itself in disarray today. In spite of all its protestations of not having used the CBI as a weapon against Jagan the timing of his recent arrest and the duration raises key questions. His present custody will extend till just one day before the scheduled by-elections in Andhra Pradesh. His mother and YSR's widow has actively jumped into the fray. She is sure to use Jagan's arrest as a point to garner sympathy of the voters. Thus it is quite possible that these elections will see a very strong performance by YSRCP.
The outcome of these elections can decide the future of the political scenario in the state. If YSRCP performs strongly and Jagan is able to at least temporarily escape the CBI's custody it is very possible he will emerge as a very very strong political candidate, possibly even the next CM. However if he is found guilty and sentenced he might end up as a damp squib. In the latter scenario the Congress and the TDP both will find it easy to keep their flock together.
Jagan belongs to the politically influential Reddy community. He has Sakshi TV and Sakshi newspaper through which he can influence public opinion, at least to some extent. His father was immensely popular. He is seen as the successor to his father and he does not seem to have any problems money wise. These are the things going in his favour today. A probable lack of equivalent leaders in at least the Congress can probably be added as a point in his favour.
Thus we will soon see whether Jagan will be a juggernaut, crushing his opposition and cruising to victory, or whether he will be incarcerated and be reduced to nothing. Given the nature of Indian politics even if he is found guilty he might return one day and play the role of the innocent victim in front of the voters. The Indian public can probably forgive everything and anything. So will this be Jagan's year? Wait and watch!
